A Middle Eastern Thought Experiment

Sometimes when we are presented with a problem, aspects of the problem have strong emotional effects. Such effects often make solving the problem more difficult than it really is. Such emotional aspects cloud our thinking. Our feelings preclude certain logically possible solutions. Thus, we can reject out-of-hand, or not even identify, logically correct solutions.

One method that can be employed in such circumstances is to change the actors and the actions to some less emotionally charged scenario. It is often helpful if another person performs the recasting. Their resulting scenario becomes merely a thought experiment. A thought experiment we can consider logically. And, therefore, develop a logical solution.

I that manner, let me posit a thought experiment. I’ll provide some of my own analysis. I’ll let you consider what you think is the logical solution. And then, I’ll translate the thought experiment back into the real life problem. You can see if you would have come to the same conclusion had you been considering the “real” problem.

Here is my thought experiment.

You are a Black man living in a mostly white neighborhood. You are a nice guy and don’t cause trouble. However, Old Man Thompson (an entirely fictitious name), is a nasty hold over from the days of bed sheets and burning crosses. He has an extreme dislike of Black folks and lets everyone in the neighborhood know it.

A few weeks after cold weather arrives, the neighborhood children start pelting you with snowballs. Now this is odd as it hasn’t snowed yet and therefore the children cannot be making their own snowballs. Yet, they seem to have an endless supply. They pelt you whenever you go out side. This makes walking your dog or riding your bike impossible.

A snowball here or there isn’t going to do much damage but there are so many you are being injured. And your dog is suffering. You’re not even safe in your own house, as they have started pelting your house and breaking windows. Something must be done.

You spend the weekend watching the neighborhood with your binoculars and discover the source of the snowballs. Old Man Thompson has an ice machine going in his back yard and is passing out boxes of snowballs to the children along with lectures on how bad black folks in general and you in particular are.

What do you do to address your problem? Let me suggest a few alternatives.

1. Just put up with it?
2. Start throwing snowballs back at the children?
3. Move out of the neighborhood?
4. Call the police on the children?
5. Call the children’s parents?
6. Call Old Man Thompson?
7. Call the police on Old Man Thompson?
8. Start throwing snowballs at Old Man Thompson?
9. Call a lawyer?
10. Build a snowball shield?
11. Steal or disable the ice machine?
12. Other.

Let’s examine each of these possibilities logically.

1. Just put up with it.

This is a fine solution if you want others to know you’re patient and not moved to anger. In the short run you can probably succeed. However, in the long run your dog and you die.

2. Start throwing snowballs back at the children

This might make you feel good. You’re bigger and stronger than any one of the children. You can through a snowball that might knock a smaller child down. However, there are a lot of children. How long can you do this before their parents get involved? Is attacking children really a good idea?

3. Move out of the neighborhood

OK if you can afford it. But most folk can’t afford it. And besides, is this really a solution? Old Man Thompson will continue to spread hate and can now point to your departure as a victory for his ideas and the children’s behavior.

4. Call the police about the children

In a rational world this sounds good. Let the authorities deal with the children. You don’t have to do anything. The police do what they are supposed to do – keep the peace.

Unfortunately I need to modify the story a bit here to reflect the real scenario. The police refuse to do anything. Worse, they blame you for starting the trouble. Oh they post a sign saying that throwing snowballs is not acceptable. But they don’t even lecture the children despite seeing them throw snowballs at your house.

5. Call the children’s parents

Again, in a rational world one might be successful with this approach. It requires, however, that the children have parents, that the parents want a quiet neighborhood, that they are capable of controlling their children, and that they also think Old Man Thompson’s view of the world is wrong.

Unfortunately, the real scenario requires that most of the children have no parents and those that do are the grandchildren of Old Man Thompson. The parents think the children are justified in their behavior.

6. Call Old Man Thompson

You can imagine how well this would work.

You’ll appeal to his what? Conscious? Sense of fairness? Tell him that he’s wrong? That he’s doing something bad? Are you going to plead? Threaten? Explain? Ya, right!

7. Call the police on Old Man Thompson

We’ve been here. If the police think the children are fine then at worst they must agree with Old Man Thompson at best he intimidates them. This just isn’t going to work.

8. Start throwing snowballs at Old Man Thompson

Might make you feel better. Might even get him to stop if he gets hurt. Of course he still has the ice machine. Where are you going to get an equal number of snowballs? You could buy your own ice machine. In the mean time you’re going to have to survive all the children’s snowballs until Old Man Thompson stops supplying them.

Is this a good approach? Well, I’d say yes – if it works. If it doesn’t you’ve really pissed off the old man and he may bring in the police on his side. If he doesn’t give in pretty quick, you’re in even bigger trouble.

9. Call a lawyer

This is a solution most folks jump to right after calling the police doesn’t work. Problem here is, what’s the lawyer going to do? He can’t control the police or make you snowballs. He can’t control the children of Old Man Thompson now the children’s parents. He can’t control the children. The police are the government’s action players. The courts, politicians, and lawyers are just mechanisms to direct the police. They don’t really DO anything - ‘cept take your time and money, of course.

10. Build a snowball shield

Take another sip of that Kool-Aid…

11. Steal or disable the ice machine

This is going to get you into all kinds of trouble with the police. However, it will provide a respite. The children are going to run out of snowballs pretty quickly and you’ll be safe. If the police are worthless at enforcing laws to protect you they will probably be worthless at enforcing laws to hurt you. Here you’re taking a chance. But you’re probably safe from the police doing anything that hurts you.

Of course, Old Man Thompson can just buy another ice machine. He does, however, have to consider that you can steal or disable the new one too. Now Old Man Thompson is faced with giving up, a long string of ice machine purchases, or changing the game.

At this point the situation comes down to who can spend the most - Old Man Thompson buying ice machines or you taking them out. If it’s less expensive to destroy an ice machine that purchase one and if your resources are proportionally equal to Old Man Thompson’s, then the contest could go on for a long time. In the mean time you don’t have to put up with the neighborhood children throwing snowballs at you, your dog, or your house. It’s a stalemate but one your can live with.

If taking out Old Man Thompson’s ice machines are more costly to you than buying them is for Old Man Thompson then you have a problem. He can replace them faster than you can take them out. This approach just won’t work under these circumstances.

Oh you might get lucky and frighten Old Man Thompson. Then he would not buy a new ice machine. But Old Man Thompson is probably not the intimidatable type. This approach becomes a gamble based on your assessment of Old Man Thompson’s psychology.

12. Other

Here are a few additional solutions.

Kill Old Man Thompson.

Quick, completely ends the problem but might get the police to actually do something against you. And worst case, it angers the children so much they buy ice machines. But it may also intimidate the children and their parents and even the police. Besides, can the police do anything worse that the children are already doing?

Kill the children

More difficult than killing the Old Man and it only solves the problem for a generation. The parents will have more children. Old Man Thompson can buy a second or third ice machine and build up an arsenal of snowballs. This approach probably has an even higher risk of getting the police to take action against you. And besides, it really pisses off the parents. There is a big intimidation factor but it leaves the real source of the problem around to continue causing trouble.

Kill the parents

You can figure out why this isn’t a great solution. It doesn’t address the root cause and it doesn’t stop the snowball throwing.

Kill the neighbors who don’t have children.

Seems ridiculous but is relevant to our thought experiment.

Take a while to think about this little thought experiment.

Now answer this question. Why did the Israelis (our Black Man) choose solution #12: Other – Kill all the children, kill some of the children’s parents, and kill some of the neighbors who don’t have children?

In our little thought experiment, the police represent the UN. They aren’t going to do anything to anyone. They are not a threat. Old Man Thompson represents Iran. Iran is not only providing the neighborhood children with snowballs (missiles and car bombs), but is vigorously selling oil to buy more ice machines and winter weather making devices. The children represent Hezbollah and the other Islamic terrorist groups. Like deranged, vicious children they have no real snowballs of their own, no morals, and no conscious. The neighbors with no children represent the Christian and neutral Lebanese. They are afraid to speak out lest they become targets of the children. The children’s parents represent the Hezbollah supporting Lebanese.

So what was your solution to the neighborhood problem? Would it have been the same if you had been solving the problem presented by Hezbollah and the Middle East?