Wednesday, January 26, 2011

Can 80% of Americans REALLY have access to high-speed rail?

"Within 25 years, our goal is to give 80% of Americans access to high-speed rail, which could allow you go places in half the time it takes to travel by car."

Wow! That sounds kewl.

But does it make any sense?

Back in 2000 about 66% of Americans lived in coastal areas—38% east coast, 16% West Coast, and 12% Gulf coast. The smallest numbers lived between the Mississippi River and the Rocky Mountains. While the Rocky Mountain and plains states account for about half of the landmass of the United States,  34 percent of the population resides in these areas. 

Given this factual distribution of Americans we need to make an assumptions about President Obama's goal statement.

What is meant by "access to"?

Since the statement appears to seek replacement of car travel by high-speed rail travel it's reasonable to assume that "access to" doesn't include a long drive. But does it mean "within walking distance"? Or, "by taxi"? Or could it mean "by subway"? It probably doesn't mean "short bush plan ride" so Obama isn't planning to include Alaskan Americans in his high-speed rail plan.

Without being snarky, let's assume he means to include walking, biking, short taxi rides, subway, and rickshaw as "access to". This limits the distance between home and rail head to a few miles.

This then requires that high-speed rail be built to within a few miles of 80% of American dwelling places.

But, 34% of Americans are distributed (yes, I realize not uniformly) over 50% of the US land area. To meet Obama's goal, 100% of the coasters and 14% of the rest must be within a few miles of a high-speed rail depot. It doesn't count if you live next to the tracks. The train has to stop and pick you up or you don't have "access".

Further, you not only must live within a few miles of a depot but your destination must also be within a few miles of a depot. Makes no sense if you walk to the train and then it drops you off in the middle of Arizona.

So, just how likely are we to meet Obama's goal? Looks like it's only achievable if:
1. Americans are relocated to urban concentration camps.
2. Americans only travel to urban concentration camps.

Vacations would then consist of traveling from New York to Miami. Or Chicago to Boston. And when we get there we've got to stay down town.

Sure solves the problem of too many visitors to all those National Parks.

Gets rid of those pesky rural farmers and ranchers too.