Some thoughts about New Orleans

This was originally written several years ago shortly after the New Orleans "disaster." Perhaps with the passage of time we have had an opportunity to reflect on what went right and wrong and who was really to blame.

We're all Americans. Americans are the most resourceful, independent, toughest folks in the world. Lets try to remember that. Let's try to treat each other in that spirit. Lets be enablers - not rescuers!

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I’m a little confused about our response to the New Orleans disaster. News reports state that there are, four days after the event, xxx people left in New Orleans. Our response? Send yyy National Guard troops, zzz Red Cross volunteers, and hundreds of search & rescue, law enforcement, medical, and aid workers.

Here is my conundrum. There are thousands of people in New Orleans with out food and water. They crowd highway overpasses and the Super Dome. Why are we sending MORE people?

Why don’t the people that are already there take care of the problems: Rescue people, care for them, set up shelters, fix the dikes, and clean up the city. After all, it’s THEIR city.

Oh, I hear the answers, “These are poor minority folks. They don’t have the resources.”

So, let’s send RESOURCES. Let’s not send people. There are plenty of people there already.

But, the enablers cry, “These are poor minority folks.”

What a condescending, racist viewpoint.

Yes these folks are poor. “Poor” is defined by a lack of money and/or resources.

So we send them resources. We pay them to use the resources. They are no longer poor – they have incomes and resources.

Why should I pay salaries of National Guard members who must leave jobs to be in the Guard when I could be paying salaries of “poor folk” who don’t have jobs?

Oh, the enablers cry, “These are poor minority folks. They aren’t police or search and rescue or food servers or boat drivers or nurses or engineers.”

What a condescending, racist viewpoint!

Are the enablers saying that poor folks can’t work?

Give them a chance. “Poor folks” built this country.

Are they saying that minorities can’t be police or save people or prepare food or serve food or drive boats or care for people or be engineers?

Look around. Minorities fill all these jobs and fill them quite well.

Don’t look down on the people of New Orleans. Don’t treat them as if they are helpless. Don’t accept a racist plantation mentality.

Provide them resources. Pay them for their work. Support them with training and leadership. And, let them stand-up to the challenges they have been presented.

They will be stronger for it. Our nation will be stronger for it. And, we will all be proud of them.

Thinking about Milk ... and Oil

Suppose you live in a small town. Your name is Wilson. In your small town there is only one milkman. One Saturday you are down town shopping and you see the milkman standing on an apple crate in the town square. In a loud voice he is listing all the miseries people in the town have experienced.

Suddenly he turns toward you and screams. “There is the reason.”

He points to you and says in a menacing voice “We need to rid our town of Mr. Wilson. And all Mr. Wilson’s friends.”

Now you are a rather large man. Certainly you’re a match, physically, for the milkman or any of the other town folk. You laugh and walk into the hardware store.

The owner of the hardware store is a friend of yours. He comes up and says, “The milkman is crazy. He’s been saying all week that he is going to get rid of you. Get you to move out of town – even out of the state. If you don’t go, something worse will happen to you. And to me!”

Now consider your and the hardware store owner’s reaction.

Milk is difficult to find. So, even though the milkman has raised his prices, you and the hardware store owner keep buying milk. You and your families keep drinking the milkman’s milk. You keep paying the milkman ever increasing prices.

Would you really do this in your own life?

I’ll bet you wouldn’t. You’d move away. If you couldn’t move, you’d find another source for your milk. If you couldn’t find another source, you’d stop drinking milk.

America and the western world is like Mr. Wilson and his friend. Mr. Wilson is hooked on milk and it must be cow’s milk. He has lots of goats living in his yard – but he won’t drink goat’s milk. He has soybeans growing on his farm but he won’t drink soy-milk. He even has an artesian well supplying unlimited amounts of powdered milk but he won’t drink powdered milk.

Mr. Wilson must be certifiably insane. You’d never keep buying milk from the crazy milkman if you were Mr. Wilson, would you

But we keep buying oil. We buy oil from an oilman who wants to kill us. We’re hooked on Middle Eastern oil. Even though we have lots of coal right in our own yard we won’t use gasoline made from coal. We too have soybeans growing on our farms but we won’t use biodiesel. We have the capability to produce boundless amounts nuclear power but we won’t use nuclear power.

We must be certifiable insane. Why do we keep buying oil?

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You can easily substitute other resources for milk in the above discourse. While it was originally written as comment on America's apparently insane addiction to foreign oil, it can also be applied to health care in the political discussions of 2009.

The Oil Industry’s Plan for Ethanol

The oil industry has a plan for ethanol. Unfortunately it isn't a plan you're going to like.

The oil industry resisted using ethanol to decrease gasoline emissions. They clung tenaciously to a chemical that had poisoned and still poisons hundreds of wells and sickened thousands of humans. They persisted in using this chemical despite the fact that ethanol doesn’t have any risk associated with it’s use.

One of the reasons they give to not use ethanol is that there is not an adequate supply.

When they were forced by congress to phase out the poisonous chemical they instead abruptly stopped using it. This had the obvious effect of creating an ethanol shortage. Lack of supply and overwhelming demand caused the price of ethanol rise.

Now any economist will tell you that the response to shortage is for new producers to enter the market place. And indeed this is happening. Ethanol plants are springing up like mushrooms after a rain all over the Midwest.

Any educated person can predict the result of a vastly increased supply - the price will drop.

As the price drops additional supply will continue to come on line. This is sometimes called 'lagged supply'. The time it takes to bring additional manufacturing on-line lags behind the demand curve. At some point the demand is met but additional supply is still being created. In situations where demand is bound and inelastic, by the time this lagged supply is available, supply exceeds demand. Prices fall. Manufacturers, especially inefficient manufacturers, fail.

Oil companies are counting on this lagged supply phenomenon. They will wait until there is excess capacity – which there surely will be – and then they will introduce an alcohol substitute.

The demand for ethanol will will dry up because oil producers will stop purchasing ethanol. The alcohol manufacturers will go broke. The oil companies will be there to buy them for pennies on the dollar. They will buy the inefficient manufacturers first and operate them at a loss to further drive the price down.

The result? Oil companies will gain control over a competing fuel. And they’ll do it on the cheap. Lots of manufacturers, farmers, investors, and consumers will be hurt.

How can Americans defend themselves from these evil predators? Actually, it’s very simple.

States must pass laws prohibiting oil companies from the sale and distribution of alternative fuels. Gasoline would be allowed to use alcohol as an additive – say 10% or less – but no more. Mixtures above 10% could only be sold and distributed by non-petroleum owned corporations or individuals. Existing laws requiring gasoline be used as the denaturing agent in alcohol fuels must be revoked. The result will be competition - competition between the oil companies and the alcohol/biodiesel manufacturers, distributors, and filling stations. Alcohol manufacturers will be isolated from market manipulations of the oil companies. The United States will have a robust, non-petroleum based fuel industry. Our dependency on Middle Eastern oil will diminish.

Competition is a good thing.

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This was written several years ago. Look around. Any of it come true? Have the oil companies successfully blocked the use/increased use of ethanol? Have they caused producers to fail? Have they bought up ethanol plants for pennies on the dollar?

Yes, yes, yes, yes.

And the trend continues.

I have been using 50% ethanol in my 1990s vehicles for over 15 years with absolutely no ill effect. My oil looks noticeably lighter when I change it. Engine performance remains excellent. And, despite my northern plains location, I have had no low temperature starting issues - even at 30 below zero. 50% also works fine in my 2009 Obama funded Traverse.

A Middle Eastern Thought Experiment

Sometimes when we are presented with a problem, aspects of the problem have strong emotional effects. Such effects often make solving the problem more difficult than it really is. Such emotional aspects cloud our thinking. Our feelings preclude certain logically possible solutions. Thus, we can reject out-of-hand, or not even identify, logically correct solutions.

One method that can be employed in such circumstances is to change the actors and the actions to some less emotionally charged scenario. It is often helpful if another person performs the recasting. Their resulting scenario becomes merely a thought experiment. A thought experiment we can consider logically. And, therefore, develop a logical solution.

I that manner, let me posit a thought experiment. I’ll provide some of my own analysis. I’ll let you consider what you think is the logical solution. And then, I’ll translate the thought experiment back into the real life problem. You can see if you would have come to the same conclusion had you been considering the “real” problem.

Here is my thought experiment.

You are a Black man living in a mostly white neighborhood. You are a nice guy and don’t cause trouble. However, Old Man Thompson (an entirely fictitious name), is a nasty hold over from the days of bed sheets and burning crosses. He has an extreme dislike of Black folks and lets everyone in the neighborhood know it.

A few weeks after cold weather arrives, the neighborhood children start pelting you with snowballs. Now this is odd as it hasn’t snowed yet and therefore the children cannot be making their own snowballs. Yet, they seem to have an endless supply. They pelt you whenever you go out side. This makes walking your dog or riding your bike impossible.

A snowball here or there isn’t going to do much damage but there are so many you are being injured. And your dog is suffering. You’re not even safe in your own house, as they have started pelting your house and breaking windows. Something must be done.

You spend the weekend watching the neighborhood with your binoculars and discover the source of the snowballs. Old Man Thompson has an ice machine going in his back yard and is passing out boxes of snowballs to the children along with lectures on how bad black folks in general and you in particular are.

What do you do to address your problem? Let me suggest a few alternatives.

1. Just put up with it?
2. Start throwing snowballs back at the children?
3. Move out of the neighborhood?
4. Call the police on the children?
5. Call the children’s parents?
6. Call Old Man Thompson?
7. Call the police on Old Man Thompson?
8. Start throwing snowballs at Old Man Thompson?
9. Call a lawyer?
10. Build a snowball shield?
11. Steal or disable the ice machine?
12. Other.

Let’s examine each of these possibilities logically.

1. Just put up with it.

This is a fine solution if you want others to know you’re patient and not moved to anger. In the short run you can probably succeed. However, in the long run your dog and you die.

2. Start throwing snowballs back at the children

This might make you feel good. You’re bigger and stronger than any one of the children. You can through a snowball that might knock a smaller child down. However, there are a lot of children. How long can you do this before their parents get involved? Is attacking children really a good idea?

3. Move out of the neighborhood

OK if you can afford it. But most folk can’t afford it. And besides, is this really a solution? Old Man Thompson will continue to spread hate and can now point to your departure as a victory for his ideas and the children’s behavior.

4. Call the police about the children

In a rational world this sounds good. Let the authorities deal with the children. You don’t have to do anything. The police do what they are supposed to do – keep the peace.

Unfortunately I need to modify the story a bit here to reflect the real scenario. The police refuse to do anything. Worse, they blame you for starting the trouble. Oh they post a sign saying that throwing snowballs is not acceptable. But they don’t even lecture the children despite seeing them throw snowballs at your house.

5. Call the children’s parents

Again, in a rational world one might be successful with this approach. It requires, however, that the children have parents, that the parents want a quiet neighborhood, that they are capable of controlling their children, and that they also think Old Man Thompson’s view of the world is wrong.

Unfortunately, the real scenario requires that most of the children have no parents and those that do are the grandchildren of Old Man Thompson. The parents think the children are justified in their behavior.

6. Call Old Man Thompson

You can imagine how well this would work.

You’ll appeal to his what? Conscious? Sense of fairness? Tell him that he’s wrong? That he’s doing something bad? Are you going to plead? Threaten? Explain? Ya, right!

7. Call the police on Old Man Thompson

We’ve been here. If the police think the children are fine then at worst they must agree with Old Man Thompson at best he intimidates them. This just isn’t going to work.

8. Start throwing snowballs at Old Man Thompson

Might make you feel better. Might even get him to stop if he gets hurt. Of course he still has the ice machine. Where are you going to get an equal number of snowballs? You could buy your own ice machine. In the mean time you’re going to have to survive all the children’s snowballs until Old Man Thompson stops supplying them.

Is this a good approach? Well, I’d say yes – if it works. If it doesn’t you’ve really pissed off the old man and he may bring in the police on his side. If he doesn’t give in pretty quick, you’re in even bigger trouble.

9. Call a lawyer

This is a solution most folks jump to right after calling the police doesn’t work. Problem here is, what’s the lawyer going to do? He can’t control the police or make you snowballs. He can’t control the children of Old Man Thompson now the children’s parents. He can’t control the children. The police are the government’s action players. The courts, politicians, and lawyers are just mechanisms to direct the police. They don’t really DO anything - ‘cept take your time and money, of course.

10. Build a snowball shield

Take another sip of that Kool-Aid…

11. Steal or disable the ice machine

This is going to get you into all kinds of trouble with the police. However, it will provide a respite. The children are going to run out of snowballs pretty quickly and you’ll be safe. If the police are worthless at enforcing laws to protect you they will probably be worthless at enforcing laws to hurt you. Here you’re taking a chance. But you’re probably safe from the police doing anything that hurts you.

Of course, Old Man Thompson can just buy another ice machine. He does, however, have to consider that you can steal or disable the new one too. Now Old Man Thompson is faced with giving up, a long string of ice machine purchases, or changing the game.

At this point the situation comes down to who can spend the most - Old Man Thompson buying ice machines or you taking them out. If it’s less expensive to destroy an ice machine that purchase one and if your resources are proportionally equal to Old Man Thompson’s, then the contest could go on for a long time. In the mean time you don’t have to put up with the neighborhood children throwing snowballs at you, your dog, or your house. It’s a stalemate but one your can live with.

If taking out Old Man Thompson’s ice machines are more costly to you than buying them is for Old Man Thompson then you have a problem. He can replace them faster than you can take them out. This approach just won’t work under these circumstances.

Oh you might get lucky and frighten Old Man Thompson. Then he would not buy a new ice machine. But Old Man Thompson is probably not the intimidatable type. This approach becomes a gamble based on your assessment of Old Man Thompson’s psychology.

12. Other

Here are a few additional solutions.

Kill Old Man Thompson.

Quick, completely ends the problem but might get the police to actually do something against you. And worst case, it angers the children so much they buy ice machines. But it may also intimidate the children and their parents and even the police. Besides, can the police do anything worse that the children are already doing?

Kill the children

More difficult than killing the Old Man and it only solves the problem for a generation. The parents will have more children. Old Man Thompson can buy a second or third ice machine and build up an arsenal of snowballs. This approach probably has an even higher risk of getting the police to take action against you. And besides, it really pisses off the parents. There is a big intimidation factor but it leaves the real source of the problem around to continue causing trouble.

Kill the parents

You can figure out why this isn’t a great solution. It doesn’t address the root cause and it doesn’t stop the snowball throwing.

Kill the neighbors who don’t have children.

Seems ridiculous but is relevant to our thought experiment.

Take a while to think about this little thought experiment.

Now answer this question. Why did the Israelis (our Black Man) choose solution #12: Other – Kill all the children, kill some of the children’s parents, and kill some of the neighbors who don’t have children?

In our little thought experiment, the police represent the UN. They aren’t going to do anything to anyone. They are not a threat. Old Man Thompson represents Iran. Iran is not only providing the neighborhood children with snowballs (missiles and car bombs), but is vigorously selling oil to buy more ice machines and winter weather making devices. The children represent Hezbollah and the other Islamic terrorist groups. Like deranged, vicious children they have no real snowballs of their own, no morals, and no conscious. The neighbors with no children represent the Christian and neutral Lebanese. They are afraid to speak out lest they become targets of the children. The children’s parents represent the Hezbollah supporting Lebanese.

So what was your solution to the neighborhood problem? Would it have been the same if you had been solving the problem presented by Hezbollah and the Middle East?